Hopper Predicts Cyber Monday Will Kick Off a Record Month For Fare Sales - Hopper Research

Hopper Predicts Cyber Monday Will Kick Off a Record Month For Fare Sales

Patrick
By Patrick Surry
Posted Nov 18, 2015

Summary

  • Hopper detects more than 30 flash sales every day in domestic markets.
  • Last year, fare sale activity was quiet during Thanksgiving and Black Friday but then more than doubled for the three weeks beginning with Cyber Monday.
  • We're anticipating a record amount of airfare deals starting Cyber Monday and continuing through the week before the holiday, based on the fact that this fall (and September in particular) was the busiest time we've ever seen for domestic flash sales.
  • According to our Consumer Airfare Index, most holiday flights are already purchased by December, causing domestic flight prices to bottom out around $205 round-trip.
  • The Hopper app will monitor flight prices and notify you in real-time when flight prices drop. If you prefer to search manually, Wednesday and Thursday are the most common days to find flash sales.
  • Flash sales begin launching around 9 a.m. ET and continue into the evening, with 9 p.m. ET being the most common hour of the day.
  • Denver, Chicago, and Atlanta top the list of the best origins to find a sale.
  • The most frequent international fare sales are from the US to destinations like Costa Rica, El Salvador, London, Belize, Shanghai, and Rio de Janeiro.
  • The most frequent domestic fare sales are to destinations like Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Orlando.

Cyber Monday

Everyone knows that Cyber Monday boasts some of the best online deals of the year, but should travelers be prepared for flight deals?

As we originally reported, we've been automatically detecting and posting flash sales whenever we see rapid price drops in airfare in a particular market. On average, we post about 1,000 domestic deals every month (more than 30 every day), and many more with international origin and/or destination.

We examined last year's fare sale data for the dates prior Thanksgiving all the way through Christmas to determine whether travelers should expect Cyber Monday deals.

Figure 1: Daily sale activity from before Thanksgiving 2014 (first pink bars) through Christmas 2014 (last pink bar)

As the graph above demonstrates, fare sale activity is quiet during Thanksgiving and Black Friday, but then it more than doubles for the three weeks beginning Cyber Monday.

We're predicting that this Cyber Monday will kick off a record month for fare sales. This fall, and September in particular, offered the most fare sales we've ever observed. This likely contributed to the larger-than-expected dip in domestic airfare that we reported recently. According to our Consumer Airfare Index, most holiday flights are already purchased by December causing domestic flight prices to bottom out around $205 round-trip.

Figure 2: Number of fare sales for domestic markets each month compared to fare sales from US origins to international destinations

Tips & Tricks For Scoring Flight Deals

The easiest way to find flight deals is to let the Hopper app monitor prices for you so you can be notified in real-time when prices drop. You can also check the Hopper deals page for fare sales from your origin. We'll be updating it as fare sales are launched on Cyber Monday.

If you prefer to search for deals manually, you'll have a better shot at scoring a fare sale on a Wednesday or a Thursday between Cyber Monday and Christmas. Fare sale activity drops off on the weekends.

Figure 3: Midweek days are the most common time to find a flash sale

Flash sale activity ramps up from 9 a.m. ET and continues into the evening with 9 p.m. ET being the most common hour of the day.

If you live in one of the following cities, you have a great chance of find domestic airfare deal from your home airport.

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Table 1: Top origins for domestic deals showing number of sales posted in October compared to an average month

Airlines frequently launch fare sales to the following domestic destinations.

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Table 2: Top domestic destinations for deals showing number of sales posted in October compared to an average month

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Table 3: Top international destinations for deals from the US showing number of sales posted in October compared to an average month

About Hopper

Hopper is an airfare prediction app available for iOS and Android devices. Hopper analyzes billions of flight prices a day to provide advice on when to fly and buy. Hopper predicts price changes for your trip, and notifies you when to book. Since the Hopper app launched in January 2015, it's saved users over $25 million on airfare.